江时学：美国的“重建美好世界”与中国的“一带一路”能否在拉美产生1+1大于2的效果？

作者系上海大学特聘教授、拉美研究中心主任

【编者按】2021年6月，在英国康沃尔举行的七国集团（G7）峰会式上，美国提出的名为“重建美好世界”（Build Back Better World, B3W）被写入G7联合声明。美国的著名智库“美洲对话组织”在2021年10月15日出版的《拉丁美洲顾问》（LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR）邀请江时学等人回答了以下问题：B3W 在反击"一带一路"倡议时会有多大的成功？B3W 首先应该应寻求解决拉美的什么基础设施需求？B3W在拉丁美洲将面临哪些主要挑战？当投资者和东道国在决定某些具体项目时，政治考虑将如何发挥作用？

以下是江时学的回答：

中国的“一带一路”倡议由五通组成：政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通。现在，“一带一路”倡议已延伸到拉丁美洲和加勒比地区。

目前，在该地区与中国建交的24个国家中，只有5个国家（巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷、哥伦比亚和巴哈马）尚未签署“一带一路”合作文件，但它们依然可以参与中国的“一带一路”倡议。

设施联通并不一定意味着跨越太平洋的海运和空运，而是指如何改善拉美的基础设施。因此，在理论上，如果满足以下条件，“重建美好世界”与“一带一路”倡议之间是可以产生协同效应的：

第一，美国不应将“一带一路”视为中国挑战美国在拉美的势力范围的企图。相反，美国需要有一个良性的意愿，将“重建美好世界”与“一带一路”结合起来，以便使一加一大于二。

其次，在“一带一路”与“重建美好世界”产生协同效应的过程中，美国不应对中国国有企业的投资持有偏见。如果一只猫能抓到一只老鼠，就不必在意它的颜色。

第三，拉美国家不应该坐等饭菜上桌。它们必须努力改善投资环境。

“一带一路”与“重建美好世界”合作的前景是光明的，但道路是曲折的。

Jiang Shixue, professor and director of the Center for Latin American Studies at Shanghai University:

“China’s Belt-Road Initiative (BRI) is composed of the following five areas: policy coordination, infrastructure connection, trade facilitation, financial cooperation and people-to-people communication. Now the BRI has been extended to Latin America and the Caribbean. By now, only five countries (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and the Bahamas), out of the 24 that have diplomatic ties with China, have not signed any official documents of cooperation within the BRI framework. But they can also participate in the Chinese initiative.

Infrastructure connection does not necessarily mean maritime shipping and/or air transportation across the Pacific Ocean. As a matter of fact, it is about improving infrastructure in Latin America. Therefore, theoretically speaking, synergy can be created between the BRI and B3W if the following conditions are met:

First, the United States should not see the BRI as a Chinese attempt to challenge the U.S. sphere of influence in Latin America. Rather, the United States needs to have a benign will to combine the B3W with the BRI so that one plus one can equal more than two.

Second, in the process of generating synergy from BRI and B3W, the United States should not have prejudice against Chinese state-owned enterprises’ investments. One shouldn’t care about the color of a cat if it can catch a rat.

Third, Latin American countries should not just sit down and wait for the meals to be served. They must play an active role by improving their investment environment.

The future of cooperation between BRI and B3W is bright, but the road ahead is bumpy.”