Necati Demircan:Türkiye’s Eyes on BRICS But Ear to EU
创建时间：  2024-09-29     浏览次数：

The current political power in Turkey has an obsessive idea of moving its relations with the West forward by using the SCO and BRICS cards to monitor the reactions of the West.


Critiques of BRICS membership in Türkiye

Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement in a TV program that if Türkiye’s European Union (EU) membership process had been completed, Türkiye would not be dealing with opportunities such as BRICS, portraying Türkiye dancing with both sides, has a negative image for Turkish Foreign Policy.[1] Of course, Fidan’s statement is more than just a statement; it is also a reflection of the domestic public debate in Türkiye. Example, Özgür Özel, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (Turkish: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi CHP), the main opposition party in Türkiye, promises to make Türkiye a member of the EU within ten years.[2]  There are two main arguments used by Turkish public opinion against BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The first is that by turning to BRICS and SCO, Türkiye is abandoning democratic governance and moving towards an “autocratic” model.[3]  The second argument is that Türkiye’s economy is integrated with the West and that it is making losses in its trade with Asian economies. In addition, Türkiye unfortunately sees the SCO and BRICS as a card that it uses against the West. Coupled with Türkiye’s 75-year NATO history and its 50-year EU candidate membership journey, Türkiye has a learned helplessness to act with the western camp. Türkiye is seen as a naughty boy in NATO and has an unrecognized candidate member status in the EU. Despite this, Türkiye has pursued a foreign policy obsessed with the West since 1945. For this reason, the current political power in Turkey has an obsessive idea of moving its relations with the West forward by using the SCO and BRICS cards to monitor the reactions of the West. Unfortunately, this policy of the government is not only a learned helplessness that Turkey’s alignment with the West is a necessity, but it also raises doubts about Türkiye’s alliance with the East. In this article, however, I will focus on two main arguments against BRICS in the Turkish public opinion and try to show that these two arguments do not reflect reality.

Argument 1: Türkiye’s economy is dependent on the West and that Türkiye has a trade deficit with BRICS countries

It is true that Türkiye’s trade deficit with China and Russia is large. In 2023, Russia’s imports to Türkiye were around $45.5 billion. China’s imports to Türkiye were around $45 billion. Also in 2023, Türkiye’s exports to Russia were around $10.9 billion, while exports to China were around $3.3 billion. Thus, in 2023, Turkey will have a deficit of around 35 billion dollars in its trade with Russia and a deficit of around 42 billion dollars in its trade with China. But there is another dimension to the issue. Many of the products that Türkiye imports from China are used as intermediates in Türkiye’s exports or consist of imports of machinery used in production. For example, according to 2023 data, machinery imports account for 46.2 percent of Türkiye’s imports from China. This is followed by imports of chemicals with 18.3 percent, iron and steel with 9.5 percent, and other consumer goods with 7.4 percent. In other words, many of Türkiye’s products with China provide input for exports. In addition to this, cheap production is ensured by buying cheaper machines from China, which Türkiye would buy from the west for two or five times the price.

At the same time, Türkiye’s imports from Russia are dominated by energy. For example, nearly 50 percent of Türkiye’s natural gas, oil and coal imports come from Russia.[5] Türkiye gets 84 percent of its energy supply from natural gas, oil and coal, and as a result, the energy purchased is used in Türkiye’s production. In addition, Türkiye has deep bilateral trade relations with Russia, ranging from nuclear energy to construction and tourism. In 2023, for example, 28 percent of Türkiye’s imports from the EU was automotive. This is followed by chemicals, ready-to-wear clothing and apparel, electronic products, iron and steel.[6] In short, most of the products Türkiye imports from the West are finished goods.

Argument 2: BRICS is a group of non-democratic countries and Türkiye is giving up on democracy by giving up on the EU

Whenever Türkiye’s SCO and BRICS membership is on the agenda, a debate starts in Turkish public opinion. While some Turkish media outlets celebrate Western democracy, they emphasize Asia as the center of “autocratic regimes”. A large majority even argue that Türkiye’s shrinking economy and lack of investment are the result of Türkiye’s move away from democracy. But this perception is an argument imposed on Türkiye by the western media. For instance, in 2013, TIME portrayed Erdogan as secular, democratic and pro-Western on its cover with the headline “Erdogan’s way”.[7] In 2018, when Türkiye’s relations with the West became strained, the same magazine put Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Viktor Orban and Rodrigo Duterte on its cover and placed Erdoğan in the category of autocratic leaders with the headline “Rise of the Strongman”.[8] A similar analogy to Erdoğan was made in Foreign Affairs in 2019, with Xi, Putin, Erdoğan, Orban and Duterte under the title “Autocracy Now”.[9] Another analogy was continued by the Atlantic magazine in 2021 with the headline “The Bad Guys Are Winning”.[10] Morton Abramowitz, former US ambassador to Ankara, was saying that thanks to Erdoğan, Türkiye was more democratic than it has ever been.[11] Especially these western media outlets are followed by journalists, academics and policy makers in Türkiye.

In addition, the western understanding of democracy unfortunately does not match reality. For example, far-right discourses and parties in the US against blacks (George Floyd) and immigrants, and in the EU against Middle Eastern immigrants are on the rise day by day. On the other hand, unfortunately, the western countries have failed to impose any sanctions on Israel over the ongoing Gaza war, let alone to stop the unjust war on civilians. Nevertheless, the BRICS countries stood by Palestine and worked for peace. There were even police interventions in Palestinian protests in countries like Germany, France and the UK. Another example is the harshness of the police interventions during the protests of the yellow vests criticizing the fuel hikes in France, which was not seen even in Türkiye. To summarize, it can be seen that human rights and freedom of expression in the West, which are shown as democratic countries, are not that far ahead of Türkiye or the BRICS countries.

Conclusion

The argument that Türkiye’s economy is dependent on the West and that it suffers losses from trade with the BRICS countries is unfortunately not what it seems. Even if Türkiye’s trade with Russia and China, in particular, is negative, they provide intermediate goods, machinery and energy for Türkiye’s exports to other countries and thus play an important role in Türkiye’s exports to other countries. The underlying reason behind the Western criticism that Türkiye has become autocratic with its shift to BRICS is an attempt to create a perception to prevent Türkiye from developing cooperation with the emerging economies of Asia due to the deadlock in its relations with the West. The fact that publications that portrayed Türkiye as democratic during the period when Türkiye had close relations with the West declared that Türkiye was becoming autocratic as it began to move away from the West shows the hypocritical attitude of the West. In addition, the participation rate in both presidential and local elections in Türkiye are far beyond even western countries.

Unfortunately, the dominance of the western media in Turkish public opinion and the obsession with westernism in Turkish foreign policy are causing the government to be indecisive in its BRICS steps. While the government has its eyes set on becoming a member of BRICS, it cannot tear its ears away from hearing proposals from the EU. A new world order is emerging. Türkiye should stop looking for solutions in the old order and take more decisive steps in the new order.

[1] TRT World, Türkiye’s BRICS bid is response to EU membership delay, https://www.trtworld.com/turkiye/turkiyes-brics-bid-is-response-to-eu-membership-delay-18210122

[2] Euronews, CHP Genel Başkanı Özgür Özel: ‘Hedefimiz, Avrupa Birliği’ne tam üye olmuş bir Türkiye’dir’, https://tr.euronews.com/2024/09/17/chp-genel-baskani-ozgur-ozel-abye-giriyoruz-milletin-yuzunu-gulduruyoruz

[3] VOA, Türkiye’nin BRICS üyeliği başvurusu “ikili oynama” olarak değerlendiriliyor, https://www.voaturkce.com/a/turkiyenin-brics-uyeligi-basvurusu-ikili-oynama-olarak-degerlendiriliyor/7788701.html For Instance; Cumhuriyet, BRICS kârdan çok zarar getirebilir, https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/dunya/brics-kardan-cok-zarar-getirebilir-2245088

[4] Türkiye Ticaret Bakanlığı, Çin Ülke Profili, https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/5f3b925713b876ea88e4c9c4/CHC%20_Ulke_Profili_%202024.pdf#page=14.08

[5] Francesco Siccardi, Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy, https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/02/understanding-the-energy-drivers-of-turkeys-foreign-policy?lang=en&center=russia-eurasia

[6] Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi,  Avrupa Birliği Bilgi Notu, Mayıs 2024, https://tim.org.tr/files/downloads/Ulke_Bilgi_Notları/AB%20Ülke%20Bilgi%20Notu.pdf

[7] TIME, Erdogan’s Way, November. 28, 2011, https://time100.time.com/2013/10/29/from-ataturk-to-erdogan-time-covers-turkey/slide/erdogans-way/

[8] TIME, The ‘Strongmen Era’ Is Here. Here’s What It Means for You, https://time.com/5264170/the-strongmen-era-is-here-heres-what-it-means-for-you/

[9] Foreign Affairs, Autocracy Now, September/October 2019.

[10] The Atlantic, ‘The Bad Guys Are Winning’ , https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/12/the-autocrats-are-winning/620526/

[11] Morton Abramowitz, The Real Recep Tayyip Erdogan, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/the-real-recep-tayyip-erdogan/

来源：https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/09/24/turkiyes-eyes-on-brics-but-ear-to-eu/




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Necati Demircan:Türkiye’s Eyes on BRICS But Ear to EU
创建时间：  2024-09-29     浏览次数：

The current political power in Turkey has an obsessive idea of moving its relations with the West forward by using the SCO and BRICS cards to monitor the reactions of the West.


Critiques of BRICS membership in Türkiye

Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement in a TV program that if Türkiye’s European Union (EU) membership process had been completed, Türkiye would not be dealing with opportunities such as BRICS, portraying Türkiye dancing with both sides, has a negative image for Turkish Foreign Policy.[1] Of course, Fidan’s statement is more than just a statement; it is also a reflection of the domestic public debate in Türkiye. Example, Özgür Özel, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (Turkish: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi CHP), the main opposition party in Türkiye, promises to make Türkiye a member of the EU within ten years.[2]  There are two main arguments used by Turkish public opinion against BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The first is that by turning to BRICS and SCO, Türkiye is abandoning democratic governance and moving towards an “autocratic” model.[3]  The second argument is that Türkiye’s economy is integrated with the West and that it is making losses in its trade with Asian economies. In addition, Türkiye unfortunately sees the SCO and BRICS as a card that it uses against the West. Coupled with Türkiye’s 75-year NATO history and its 50-year EU candidate membership journey, Türkiye has a learned helplessness to act with the western camp. Türkiye is seen as a naughty boy in NATO and has an unrecognized candidate member status in the EU. Despite this, Türkiye has pursued a foreign policy obsessed with the West since 1945. For this reason, the current political power in Turkey has an obsessive idea of moving its relations with the West forward by using the SCO and BRICS cards to monitor the reactions of the West. Unfortunately, this policy of the government is not only a learned helplessness that Turkey’s alignment with the West is a necessity, but it also raises doubts about Türkiye’s alliance with the East. In this article, however, I will focus on two main arguments against BRICS in the Turkish public opinion and try to show that these two arguments do not reflect reality.

Argument 1: Türkiye’s economy is dependent on the West and that Türkiye has a trade deficit with BRICS countries

It is true that Türkiye’s trade deficit with China and Russia is large. In 2023, Russia’s imports to Türkiye were around $45.5 billion. China’s imports to Türkiye were around $45 billion. Also in 2023, Türkiye’s exports to Russia were around $10.9 billion, while exports to China were around $3.3 billion. Thus, in 2023, Turkey will have a deficit of around 35 billion dollars in its trade with Russia and a deficit of around 42 billion dollars in its trade with China. But there is another dimension to the issue. Many of the products that Türkiye imports from China are used as intermediates in Türkiye’s exports or consist of imports of machinery used in production. For example, according to 2023 data, machinery imports account for 46.2 percent of Türkiye’s imports from China. This is followed by imports of chemicals with 18.3 percent, iron and steel with 9.5 percent, and other consumer goods with 7.4 percent. In other words, many of Türkiye’s products with China provide input for exports. In addition to this, cheap production is ensured by buying cheaper machines from China, which Türkiye would buy from the west for two or five times the price.

At the same time, Türkiye’s imports from Russia are dominated by energy. For example, nearly 50 percent of Türkiye’s natural gas, oil and coal imports come from Russia.[5] Türkiye gets 84 percent of its energy supply from natural gas, oil and coal, and as a result, the energy purchased is used in Türkiye’s production. In addition, Türkiye has deep bilateral trade relations with Russia, ranging from nuclear energy to construction and tourism. In 2023, for example, 28 percent of Türkiye’s imports from the EU was automotive. This is followed by chemicals, ready-to-wear clothing and apparel, electronic products, iron and steel.[6] In short, most of the products Türkiye imports from the West are finished goods.

Argument 2: BRICS is a group of non-democratic countries and Türkiye is giving up on democracy by giving up on the EU

Whenever Türkiye’s SCO and BRICS membership is on the agenda, a debate starts in Turkish public opinion. While some Turkish media outlets celebrate Western democracy, they emphasize Asia as the center of “autocratic regimes”. A large majority even argue that Türkiye’s shrinking economy and lack of investment are the result of Türkiye’s move away from democracy. But this perception is an argument imposed on Türkiye by the western media. For instance, in 2013, TIME portrayed Erdogan as secular, democratic and pro-Western on its cover with the headline “Erdogan’s way”.[7] In 2018, when Türkiye’s relations with the West became strained, the same magazine put Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Viktor Orban and Rodrigo Duterte on its cover and placed Erdoğan in the category of autocratic leaders with the headline “Rise of the Strongman”.[8] A similar analogy to Erdoğan was made in Foreign Affairs in 2019, with Xi, Putin, Erdoğan, Orban and Duterte under the title “Autocracy Now”.[9] Another analogy was continued by the Atlantic magazine in 2021 with the headline “The Bad Guys Are Winning”.[10] Morton Abramowitz, former US ambassador to Ankara, was saying that thanks to Erdoğan, Türkiye was more democratic than it has ever been.[11] Especially these western media outlets are followed by journalists, academics and policy makers in Türkiye.

In addition, the western understanding of democracy unfortunately does not match reality. For example, far-right discourses and parties in the US against blacks (George Floyd) and immigrants, and in the EU against Middle Eastern immigrants are on the rise day by day. On the other hand, unfortunately, the western countries have failed to impose any sanctions on Israel over the ongoing Gaza war, let alone to stop the unjust war on civilians. Nevertheless, the BRICS countries stood by Palestine and worked for peace. There were even police interventions in Palestinian protests in countries like Germany, France and the UK. Another example is the harshness of the police interventions during the protests of the yellow vests criticizing the fuel hikes in France, which was not seen even in Türkiye. To summarize, it can be seen that human rights and freedom of expression in the West, which are shown as democratic countries, are not that far ahead of Türkiye or the BRICS countries.

Conclusion

The argument that Türkiye’s economy is dependent on the West and that it suffers losses from trade with the BRICS countries is unfortunately not what it seems. Even if Türkiye’s trade with Russia and China, in particular, is negative, they provide intermediate goods, machinery and energy for Türkiye’s exports to other countries and thus play an important role in Türkiye’s exports to other countries. The underlying reason behind the Western criticism that Türkiye has become autocratic with its shift to BRICS is an attempt to create a perception to prevent Türkiye from developing cooperation with the emerging economies of Asia due to the deadlock in its relations with the West. The fact that publications that portrayed Türkiye as democratic during the period when Türkiye had close relations with the West declared that Türkiye was becoming autocratic as it began to move away from the West shows the hypocritical attitude of the West. In addition, the participation rate in both presidential and local elections in Türkiye are far beyond even western countries.

Unfortunately, the dominance of the western media in Turkish public opinion and the obsession with westernism in Turkish foreign policy are causing the government to be indecisive in its BRICS steps. While the government has its eyes set on becoming a member of BRICS, it cannot tear its ears away from hearing proposals from the EU. A new world order is emerging. Türkiye should stop looking for solutions in the old order and take more decisive steps in the new order.

[1] TRT World, Türkiye’s BRICS bid is response to EU membership delay, https://www.trtworld.com/turkiye/turkiyes-brics-bid-is-response-to-eu-membership-delay-18210122

[2] Euronews, CHP Genel Başkanı Özgür Özel: ‘Hedefimiz, Avrupa Birliği’ne tam üye olmuş bir Türkiye’dir’, https://tr.euronews.com/2024/09/17/chp-genel-baskani-ozgur-ozel-abye-giriyoruz-milletin-yuzunu-gulduruyoruz

[3] VOA, Türkiye’nin BRICS üyeliği başvurusu “ikili oynama” olarak değerlendiriliyor, https://www.voaturkce.com/a/turkiyenin-brics-uyeligi-basvurusu-ikili-oynama-olarak-degerlendiriliyor/7788701.html For Instance; Cumhuriyet, BRICS kârdan çok zarar getirebilir, https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/dunya/brics-kardan-cok-zarar-getirebilir-2245088

[4] Türkiye Ticaret Bakanlığı, Çin Ülke Profili, https://ticaret.gov.tr/data/5f3b925713b876ea88e4c9c4/CHC%20_Ulke_Profili_%202024.pdf#page=14.08

[5] Francesco Siccardi, Understanding the Energy Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy, https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/02/understanding-the-energy-drivers-of-turkeys-foreign-policy?lang=en&center=russia-eurasia

[6] Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi,  Avrupa Birliği Bilgi Notu, Mayıs 2024, https://tim.org.tr/files/downloads/Ulke_Bilgi_Notları/AB%20Ülke%20Bilgi%20Notu.pdf

[7] TIME, Erdogan’s Way, November. 28, 2011, https://time100.time.com/2013/10/29/from-ataturk-to-erdogan-time-covers-turkey/slide/erdogans-way/

[8] TIME, The ‘Strongmen Era’ Is Here. Here’s What It Means for You, https://time.com/5264170/the-strongmen-era-is-here-heres-what-it-means-for-you/

[9] Foreign Affairs, Autocracy Now, September/October 2019.

[10] The Atlantic, ‘The Bad Guys Are Winning’ , https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/12/the-autocrats-are-winning/620526/

[11] Morton Abramowitz, The Real Recep Tayyip Erdogan, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/the-real-recep-tayyip-erdogan/

来源：https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/09/24/turkiyes-eyes-on-brics-but-ear-to-eu/




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